By Erwin Szeto | Host of The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians 

Recorded: April 2026

Host: Erwin Szeto, The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians Podcast

Three Real Estate Stories the Headlines Are Missing in 2026 

Three stories crossed my desk in the last few weeks that every Canadian real estate investor needs to hear about — together, not separately. Because when you put them side by side, they tell one story, and it’s the story the headlines are missing. 

Story one: Ontario’s HST rebate on new-build homes launched April 1st, and sales surged at major builders. Story two: Alberta’s new-build market — the province everyone has been telling you to buy into — is showing real cracks. And story three: a regulatory ruling from FSRA that hit close to home for me personally, and that carries a lesson every private investor needs to absorb. 

Here’s what they have in common. The headline is never the whole story. The loudest voices in a market are rarely the most informed. And your job as an investor is to do your own work. 

Let’s get into it. 

Story 1: Ontario’s HST Rebate Sparks a Sales Surge — But the Investor Window Has Already Closed 

On April 12th, the Globe and Mail reported that new-build home sales in Ontario surged in the first week of the province’s new HST rebate. Major homebuilder Minto sold nearly 120 new homes in Ottawa and the Toronto region. Branthaven Homes sold more homes in one week than they did in all of 2025. The industry trade group BILD called it a “jolt.” 

If you’re an Ontario landlord or investor, the question is obvious: is this the bottom? Is preconstruction back? Should I jump in? 

Before you do, you need to understand what the rebate actually covers — and what it doesn’t. 

How the Ontario HST New-Build Rebate Works 

Effective April 1st, 2026, Ontario buyers can claim a rebate on the 13% HST on new-build homes. The transaction window runs until March 31st, 2027. The rules differ depending on whether you’re buying to live in the home or to rent it out. 

For end-users (people buying a home to live in), construction has to start before December 31st, 2028 to qualify. That’s a meaningful window. 

For investors (people buying to rent the unit out), the rules are dramatically tighter. Construction must already have been started by March 31st, 2026 — a date that has already passed. In other words, the investor version of this rebate only applies to product that’s already in the ground. There is no path for an investor to buy a brand-new project and qualify. 

It’s also worth noting that the rebate is not yet ratified in legislation. Buyers and developers are transacting as if it is, but the federal Department of Finance told the Globe it cannot speculate on timelines. 

The Case for Optimism 

Let’s give the rebate its fair due. Thirteen per cent off a new home is real money. On a $700,000 townhome, that’s $91,000 — a meaningful down payment, not a marketing gimmick. 

The volume is undeniable. Branthaven sold 120 townhomes in Milton and Mississauga and another 20 condos in Oakville in a single week. Construction jobs are coming back — Branthaven’s president told the Globe he expects to rehire up to 30 staff and put dozens of subcontractors back to work. And it begins to clear out the more than 10,700 cancelled GTA and Hamilton condo units that have hung over the market since 2022. 

The Case for Caution 

Not every builder is sharing in the surge. Fernbrook Homes — a 45-year veteran developer — told the Globe they had “many calls and inquiries” but the result was “no sales. Zero.” CEO Joe Salvatore said buyers are “100,000 per cent gun shy” after years of economic upheaval and the U.S. trade war. 

Minto’s own CEO openly questioned whether the surge would last: “Is this a short spurt that will peter out, or will it be sustained?” Pauline Lierman of Zonda Urban — a leading preconstruction researcher — was even more direct: “Demand and confidence is not all there.” 

And the underlying affordability problem hasn’t moved. Solmar Development just cancelled its large Bristol Place condo project in Brampton and converted it to rentals. Their executive vice-president told the Globe the issue was simple: buyers can’t qualify for mortgages and can’t come up with the down payments. “Affordability continues to be an issue, regardless of the rebates.” 

What This Means for Investors 

If you’re a first-time buyer or end-user, the rebate is genuinely worth a serious look. The math on your primary residence is different than the math on a rental, and you have a meaningful window to act. 

If you’re an investor hoping the rebate unlocks Ontario rentals, slow down. The investor cutoff has already passed. Anything you buy now does not qualify for the investor rebate. And Ontario’s underlying landlord economics — rent control, tenant board wait times, eviction process, capped annual increases — have not changed. A one-time purchase discount does not fix ongoing negative cash flow. 

If you’re an existing Ontario landlord whose properties are not cash-flowing, this rebate may actually create a window for you to exit. If new-build sales pick up broadly, the resale market tends to follow with a lag. That could be your opportunity to redeploy capital into something that actually cash-flows. 

Which leads us to where many Ontario investors have been looking for the past few years. 

🎧 Listen to the full podcast

Story 2: Why Toronto Investors Are Walking Away from Their Calgary Preconstruction Deals 

For the last three or four years, the loudest advice in Canadian real estate investing circles has been some version of: “Sell your Ontario rental, buy in Alberta.” I get it. Landlord-friendly legislation, no rent control, lower provincial taxes, a growing population, better affordability than the GTA or the Lower Mainland. On paper, it’s everything Ontario isn’t. 

Then on April 2nd, the Globe and Mail published a piece titled “Glut of new build homes starts to unhinge the Alberta market.” Every Canadian investor with Alberta exposure — or who is considering it — needs to read it carefully. 

The Calgary Townhouse Glut, By the Numbers 

According to Altus Group data cited in the Globe, unsold new-build townhome inventory in Calgary hovered below 1,000 units from mid-2023 through early 2025. By the end of 2025, it climbed past 1,030 — and rising. The share of new-build townhomes priced at or above $500,000 jumped from 40 per cent to 72 per cent in the same period, putting them out of reach of many local first-time buyers. 

Here’s the line every investor needs to absorb. Edward Jegg, Altus’s research manager of data solutions, told the Globe: “Many projects started in the early 2020s were targeted to Toronto investors,” and “a number of those sales to out-of-town investors are not going through, so they are coming back to the market.” 

Translation: the Toronto investors who bought Calgary preconstruction in 2021, 2022, and 2023 — when everyone was telling you Alberta was the next big thing — those deals aren’t closing. Investors are walking away or can’t qualify, and the inventory is landing back on the market and piling up. 

The Cash-Flow Story Has Changed 

Calgary agent Michael Ferianec of Urban Upgrade & New Infills explained why investor demand has dried up: “The cash flow that once made new-build townhomes an attractive investment has dwindled, as a healthy supply of purpose-built rentals, combined with slower population growth, drives down asking rents.” He’s also seeing “more flip-over from rental to sale. Because the rental market already has a lot of listings.” 

That’s a feedback loop. When rents soften, landlords list for sale instead of rent. That adds to for-sale inventory. That softens prices. Meanwhile, Calgary’s unemployment is still elevated, and oil prices are squeezing local cost of living. Three buyer segments — local first-timers, local renters, out-of-town investors — are all soft at the same time. 

The Long-Term Alberta Case Is Still Real 

I want to be fair here. The structural case for Alberta is still intact. Landlord-friendly legislation remains among the most landlord-friendly in the country. There is still no rent control. The eviction process is faster and more predictable than Ontario’s tenant board. Provincial tax burden is lower. Long-term population trajectory — interprovincial migration, international immigration — remains a tailwind, even if it has slowed. 

This isn’t a story about Alberta being broken. It’s a story about cycles. Calgary in 2026 looks different from Calgary in 2022. The investors who made money on Alberta over the last few years didn’t do it because Alberta is magic — they did it because they bought at the right part of the cycle, at the right price point, in the right sub-market, with the right financing. 

The Bigger Lesson — Stop Chasing Narratives 

The narrative that moves through Canadian investor circles is always one or two steps behind the data. In 2020 and 2021 it was “Toronto condos forever.” From 2022 through 2024 it was “get out of Ontario, buy Alberta.” And a lot of investors bought Calgary townhomes from a floor plan, sight unseen, in a sub-market they had never visited, based on a spreadsheet a promoter handed them at a free seminar. Now those units are completing, the rents aren’t where the pro-forma said they would be, the values aren’t where the pro-forma said they would be, and the investors are either walking or holding something that doesn’t cash-flow. 

This isn’t an Alberta problem. It’s a chasing-the-narrative problem. I’ve watched the same pattern in Toronto, Hamilton, Barrie — and now Calgary. 

Where the Real Opportunity Is Right Now 

Many of my recent podcast guests — active investors, builders, experienced operators — have told me the same thing. Deals are hard to come by right now. Construction costs are inflated. Property values, even in softer markets, haven’t collapsed the way some expected. The spread between what it costs to build and what you can sell or rent for has narrowed. That’s a tough environment to find a great deal in. The consistent message from those guests has been: be patient, underwrite quality, and don’t force a deal just to be in the market. 

With that context, here’s the opportunity I’d actually be paying attention to. A glut of unsold new-build inventory and small developers under real pressure — softening rents, oversupply, carrying costs, nervous lenders — is motivated-seller territory. 

Think about it. Why take on financing risk, development risk, construction risk, timing risk, and pay today’s inflated build costs — when there’s a small developer who has already carried all of that risk, has a finished building, and needs to move it? You can potentially buy turnkey, at a discount, with actual rent history and actual expense data. No pro-forma guessing. That’s a fundamentally better risk-adjusted position than buying preconstruction from a floor plan. The patient buyer with cash or pre-approved financing is the one who gets paid in this cycle. 

Story 3: FSRA’s $600,000 Penalty Against Claire Drage — and Three Lessons Every Investor Must Absorb 

The third story is the hardest one for me to write. Because it isn’t about a market or a policy — it’s about a person, and many in the Ontario real estate investing community knew her, including me. 

What FSRA Found 

On March 11th, 2026, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) announced six administrative monetary penalties totalling $600,000 against Claire Drage, formerly a licensed mortgage broker in Guelph. The full release is available on FSRA’s website, and I encourage you to read it directly. 

FSRA’s findings, in their words: Drage “engaged in a prolonged and extensive pattern of misconduct, exposed investors to significant losses, failed to mitigate those losses, and derived significant economic benefit from her contraventions.” 

FSRA states she brokered hundreds of mortgages and other loans for a group of real estate developers, raising over $100 million from the investing public. The cited regulatory breaches include failing to disclose material risks, failing to disclose conflicts of interest, providing inaccurate valuations, failing to take reasonable steps to ensure mortgages were suitable, and failing to address inaccuracies in mortgage applications. The real estate companies behind those loans became insolvent and were granted CCAA creditor protection on January 23rd, 2024, exposing investors to real losses. Drage did not contest FSRA’s proposal, and the order was issued as-is. 

Why I Have to Disclose My Own History Here 

I knew Claire personally. She was a sponsor of my investor conference back in 2019. We referred clients to each other. She was, for a period, someone I considered a respected peer in this industry. 

At a certain point — years before any of this became public — something came up in my own network that concerned me. Out of fairness, and because there was a regulatory process that has only just concluded, I’m not going to get into specifics. But after that experience, I quietly made the decision to stop referring clients, and I took down the podcast episode I had recorded with her. I didn’t go public or issue a statement but I pulled back. 

I have to be honest with myself here. Almost three years passed between when I pulled back and when this all became public with the CCAA filing in January 2024. In that time, Claire continued to speak at other podcasts, sponsor other meetups, and appear at industry events. I wasn’t the gatekeeper for an entire industry. But I do sometimes ask myself whether I should have said more, sooner. It isn’t a clean answer. I had a hunch. I acted on it for myself and my direct clients but I didn’t broadcast it. Reasonable people can disagree about whether that was the right call. 

To the Investors Who Were Hurt 

Behind that one paragraph from FSRA about penalties are real people. Retail investors — often mom-and-pop lenders, sometimes retirees putting RRSP or TFSA money into what they thought was a safe, secured, first-mortgage investment — who lost money or had their capital tied up in an insolvency that may take years to resolve. 

If that’s you, I’m truly sorry. Nothing in the rest of this article is meant to lecture anyone already hurt. You did what a lot of smart, well-intentioned people did — you trusted someone licensed by the province, endorsed by the community, on stages with people you respected. That isn’t naive. That’s human. The rest of this is for everyone else who hasn’t yet made a similar decision and can still learn from what happened. 

Lesson 1 — Do Diligence on the Person, Not Just the Deal 

When you invest in a private mortgage, a syndicated mortgage, a Mortgage Investment Corporation (MIC), or any real estate syndication, you are not just investing in a property. You are investing in the people running the deal — their integrity, their processes, their disclosures, their willingness to tell you bad news when bad news happens. The property is a commodity. The operator is not. 

Concrete steps to do diligence on a person: check their licence status on the regulator’s website (FSRA for Ontario mortgage brokers, OSC for exempt market dealers). Search the regulatory enforcement database. Search their name with terms like “lawsuit,” “complaint,” “FSRA,” “OSC,” and “CCAA.” Ask for references from past investors on deals that went badly, not just deals that paid out — anyone can give you a happy reference. Ask about the deals that didn’t go well: How were they handled? How was the communication? Were losses disclosed and mitigated, or papered over? 

Pay particular attention to conflicts of interest. If the same person is the broker, the promoter, a connected party to the developer, and the recipient of transaction fees — that’s a stack of conflicts. It does not automatically disqualify the deal, but it has to be disclosed clearly and accounted for in how you size your investment. FSRA specifically cited failure to disclose conflicts of interest in this case. That isn’t a technicality. That’s the whole game. 

Lesson 2 — Private Lending Is Risk Capital, Not GIC Capital 

A lot of retail investors have been sold on private mortgages and MICs over the last decade as a “safe, secured, high-yield” alternative to GICs. That framing oversimplifies the actual risk. 

A first mortgage on real property is secured — yes. But secured against what? An appraisal value the broker provided? A property in a small town with a thin resale market? A development project where the value only materializes if construction finishes and lease-up succeeds? A borrower who may be connected to the broker arranging the loan? “Secured” is not the same as “safe,” and “high yield” exists for a reason: it is compensation for risk that’s real, even if you can’t see it on the pitch deck. 

When these deals go bad, they don’t go gently. They tend to go via CCAA filings or receiverships, and by the time you hear about it your capital is frozen for years while lawyers work through the priority stack. That isn’t a bond. It’s a fundamentally different risk profile, and it has to be sized in your portfolio accordingly. 

Well-structured private lending, with a trustworthy operator, genuine arm’s-length underwriting, and a property in a liquid market, absolutely has a place in a portfolio. What it doesn’t have is a place in your GIC bucket. If losing it would be devastating, it doesn’t belong here. 

Lesson 3 — Trust Your Gut, and Act on It 

When something feels off, act on it. Don’t wait for proof. Don’t wait for the regulator to catch up. Don’t wait until you can articulate the concern well enough to convince other people. Just protect your people. 

I pulled back years before any of this was public. I had no proof — just a hunch from one interaction that didn’t sit right with me. A lot of voices in our industry would have told me I was being paranoid, being unfair, burning a bridge with a successful operator for no reason. I pulled back anyway. Today I don’t regret that — I only regret not being louder about it earlier. 

If you’re a referrer — a realtor, a planner, a coach, a podcaster — the people who trust you are extending your reputation to the people you refer them to. That is a real responsibility. The stage someone stands on, the sponsorships they buy, the podcasts they appear on — those things confer credibility. All of us in this industry who platform people owe our audiences more diligence than we often do. 

The Common Thread 

Three stories. One thread. Ontario’s HST rebate surge is real but narrower for investors than the headlines suggest, and the investor cutoff has already passed. Alberta’s structural case is still intact, but the short-term picture is softer than the pitch decks say, and the real opportunity is patient capital buying turnkey from motivated sellers — not chasing preconstruction. And the FSRA ruling on Claire Drage is a reminder that in this industry, the people pitching you a deal deserve at least as much diligence as the deal itself. 

The headline is never the whole story. The loudest voices in a market are rarely the most informed. Your job as an investor is to do your own work — check the numbers, check the operator, trust your gut, underwrite on what is actually happening, not what a spreadsheet says could happen. 

Want Help Working Through This? 

If you’re trying to figure out whether to hold an Ontario rental, exit into Alberta, redeploy into the U.S., or stress-test a private lending position someone just pitched you — that’s exactly the conversation we have at iWIN Wealth Planning every week. 

I built this practice with my wife Cherry — a CPA who specializes in real estate tax — so our clients don’t have to navigate decisions like these alone, based on whoever had the shiniest pitch at the last meetup. We bring together real estate strategy, U.S. investment access through SHARE, tax planning, and estate and insurance planning into one coordinated plan. 

Reach out through iWIN Wealth Planning to start the conversation. 

Listen to the Full Episode 

The full audio version of this analysis is available on this week’s episode of The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians.

🎧 Listen here

Until next week — invest wisely. 

Want to stay ahead of what’s happening in real estate and the economy? 

Subscribe free at www.truthaboutrealestateinvesting.ca — get new episodes delivered straight to your inbox. 

Thinking about your next move as a real estate investor? 

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Subscribe to The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians — ranked #81 business podcast on iTunes. 

To Listen:

On iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/ontario-hst-rebate-surge-alberta-cracks-%24600k-fsra/id1100488294?i=1000763729945

On Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/erwinszeto/episodes/Ontario-HST-Rebate-SURGE–Alberta-CRACKS–600K-FSRA-Fine–Canadian-Real-Estate-2026-e3ie90u

Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.ca/podcasts/40fe627d-dec7-4f5d-b7e5-90a550fffe46/episodes/cce7c607-9892-4548-b23a-dfa531d911db/the-truth-about-real-estate-investing-for-canadians-ontario-hst-rebate-surge-alberta-cracks-600k-fsra-fine-canadian-real-estate-2026

Audible: https://www.audible.ca/pd/B0GYMKW9HY?source_code=ASSGB149080119000H&share_location=pdp

YouTube: https://youtu.be/ibBWxozAre8

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

After dozens of consultations, I’ve noticed the same pattern again and again: most investors have built real wealth, but they’re not confident they can retire from it. They’re sitting on $2M–$5M in property but feel cash-flow poor. They’re paying more tax than they should because everything is held in personal names. They have no liquidity, no insurance strategy, and no clear plan for what happens if something happens to them. And almost every single client tells me the same thing: “I don’t actually know what retirement looks like for us.” 

Real estate builds equity, but it doesn’t automatically build freedom. Without a coordinated plan for taxes, income, protection, and exit strategy, investors often end up working harder in retirement than they did in their 30s. That’s why I created the Wealth Freedom Blueprint – a simple, practical guide to help you understand where you stand today, what gaps are costing you money, and how to turn the wealth you’ve built into a life you can actually live. 

Download your free Wealth Freedom Blueprint 

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re building wealth, protecting it, or preparing to transition it, you deserve a clear, tax-smart strategy that works in real life. 

That’s what iWIN Wealth Planning is here for. 

This is how we’re creating predictable, stress-free wealth for Canadian families… 
so you can enjoy the life you’re building. 

Book your Wealth Planning Call 

Sponsored by… Me!

This episode isn’t sponsored—except by my wife Cherry and me. Real estate investing is our life. It’s helped us build wealth and achieve peace of mind about retirement and our children’s future.

Till next time—just do it. I believe in you.

Erwin Szeto
W: erwinszeto.com
FB: facebook.com/erwin.szeto
IG: @erwinszeto

Disclaimer

As a committed advocate for transparent and responsible investing, I want to disclose that I am an Advisor to SHARE SFR (Single Family Rental). I hold equity in the company and earn referral commissions from clients I refer.

My endorsement of their model—focusing on positive cash flow and direct ownership—is based on personal experience and belief. Still, every investor should do their own due diligence.

Recorded: April 2026

Host: Erwin Szeto, The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians Podcast

I read the news every day. Not because I enjoy it — because I have to. Wayne Gretzky said it best: skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. If I do not understand what is happening in the world, I cannot make good decisions for my portfolio or my clients. 

This past weekend I presented at the iWIN Wealth Summit — a client-only event — and shared the research I have been tracking closely. This is my full breakdown, updated for the podcast. 

The short version: Canada is facing real economic headwinds. The data is not great. But the investors who understand where things are going — not where they were — are already positioning themselves. Here is what I am watching and what I am doing. 

First Question to Ask Yourself Right Now 

Before anything else: how busy do you want to be? 

In my experience working with Ontario real estate investors over many years, the majority are overworked. Very few active landlords are genuinely enjoying the experience. Life is short. My investing philosophy — and what I advise my clients on — is to own real estate as passively as possible so that you can spend more time with the people who matter most to you. 

That principle shapes everything that follows. 

What Actually Drives Real Estate Prices 

Two things: a growing population with rising incomes, and a growing economy. They are connected — a strong economy attracts more people, more people compete for the same properties, and prices rise. 

Real estate is also what I call a hard investment. Hard means hard to reproduce. Gold is rising in value for the same reason — you cannot manufacture more of it. Land works the same way. Nobody is creating more of it. That is why I have always preferred land-based properties for myself and my clients over condominiums, where there is essentially unlimited sky to keep building. 

So the question becomes: where are we seeing population growth and rising incomes? Because that is where prices will go. 

Canada: The Data Is Not Good 

Canada’s population declined by approximately 102,000 people in calendar year 2025. That is the first significant quarterly population decline on record since 1946. That is not a blip. 

Economic growth projections for Canada in 2026 were already modest — 1.1 to 1.7 percent — and that was before the Iran war and the latest round of tariff uncertainty. TD Economics and Desjardins have both warned that inflation could climb back to 3 percent or higher due to rising oil prices triggered by the conflict. 

Scotiabank is now predicting three Bank of Canada rate increases in 2026 if the war persists. The five-year Canadian bond yield — which drives five-year fixed mortgage rates — has been climbing since the war began at the end of February. The five-year fixed rate has already moved from approximately 3.79 percent to around 4.09 percent. 

My wife and I saw this coming. We had two mortgage renewals and locked both in — one at 3.75 percent and one at 3.85 percent, both three-year fixed. We still carry variable rate mortgages on other properties, but for the ones we have no plans to sell, locking in made sense. Based on our current variable rate, just two Bank of Canada increases would put us behind on those properties. 

The Canadian Job Market: A Structural Shift 

Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February. That number alone is alarming. But the composition of those losses matters even more than the total. 

The losses are concentrated in full-time, private-sector, white-collar work: 

• Software jobs: down approximately 18% 

• Finance and accounting: down approximately 18% 

• HR and business services: down approximately 13% 

Where is the job growth happening? Retail. Food services. Manual and blue-collar roles. 

This is a structural shift, not a temporary dip. Business investment is weak. The tax and regulatory environment is pushing entrepreneurs to the United States and Europe. Skilled immigrants — the people Canada has spent years attracting — are leaving. We are moving from high-productivity, high-income work toward lower-wage service employment. 

What does this mean for real estate investors? Lower incomes compress housing prices. Fewer people will own. More will rent. For landlords, that stabilizes and eventually raises rents. But it also means we cannot count on appreciation to carry our returns — we need stronger cash flow from day one for an investment to make sense. 

US Midterms: Why Canadian Investors Should Be Paying Attention 

The 2026 US midterm elections are this November. They will determine who controls Congress. And right now, the betting markets — I track Polymarket, not polls — are showing a clear trend: the Republican Party’s odds of holding the Senate have been declining steadily. 

If the Democrats win and Trump’s party loses control of Congress, two things become likely: first, the Democrats would push hard for full tariff exemptions on Canadian goods, though Trump retains presidential veto power. Second, they would likely restrict funding for the Iran war, which could ease oil prices and reduce inflation pressure. 

Reduced tariffs and lower inflation would be a meaningful win for both the US and Canadian economies. Our economy needs all the help it can get. 

Where I Am Putting My Own Money: Texas 

I already have an investment property in Texas. And the more I research, the more convinced I am that this is where the puck is going. 

When the situation in Venezuela escalated and the US moved to restrict Venezuelan oil, I started tracing who benefits from that supply disruption. The answer: Texas Gulf Coast refineries. They are uniquely engineered to process Venezuelan heavy crude. Texas is energy-friendly, it is coastal, and it is positioned to capture more of that supply. 

Then Elon Musk announced a $25 billion TeraFab investment in Texas — one of the largest private investments in the state’s history. The facility will build critical AI and aerospace supply chains domestically for Tesla and SpaceX, both headquartered in Texas. New manufacturing draws feeder companies and material suppliers. The ripple effects across the local economy are significant. 

The direct job creation: approximately 10,000 high-paying positions for AI researchers, semiconductor engineers, lithography specialists, and fab operators. These are exactly the kinds of workers who drive demand for housing. Growing population. Rising incomes. Growing economy. That is the formula. 

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. “ 

Wayne Gretzky

Canada is not producing those conditions right now. Texas is. That is not a political statement — it is a math statement. And I invest accordingly. 

What This Means for Your Portfolio 

None of this means Canadian real estate is over. Land-based properties in solid Ontario markets still have long-term merit and strong rental demand from people who cannot afford to buy. But the easy appreciation years are behind us for now, and the investors still waiting for 2021 to come back are going to keep waiting. 

The investors I see doing well right now are the ones asking the right question: given the environment, how do I build real cash flow, stay as passive as possible, and position for where the economy is actually going? 

That is the conversation I want to be having. If you want to go deeper on any of this — the Texas opportunity, the Canadian macro picture, or building a more passive portfolio — reply to this email or book a call with the iWIN team. My DMs are open. 

Want to stay ahead of what’s happening in real estate and the economy? 

Subscribe free at www.truthaboutrealestateinvesting.ca — get new episodes delivered straight to your inbox. 

Thinking about your next move as a real estate investor? 

Book a free strategy call with the iWIN team: Apply here

Subscribe to The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians — ranked #81 business podcast on iTunes. 

To Listen:

On iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/canada-is-losing-jobs-and-population-here-is-where-i/id1100488294?i=1000760455746

On Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/erwinszeto/episodes/Canada-Is-Losing-Jobs-and-Population–Here-Is-Where-I-Am-Investing-Instead-e3hl9en 

Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.ca/podcasts/40fe627d-dec7-4f5d-b7e5-90a550fffe46/episodes/32032c6c-219e-45a2-bad0-94e93adbddd9/the-truth-about-real-estate-investing-for-canadians-canada-is-losing-jobs-and-population-here-is-where-i-am-investing-instead

Audible: https://www.audible.ca/pd/B0GWMXM94V?source_code=ASSGB149080119000H&share_location=pdp

YouTube: https://youtu.be/2GiABPa9vo8

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

After dozens of consultations, I’ve noticed the same pattern again and again: most investors have built real wealth, but they’re not confident they can retire from it. They’re sitting on $2M–$5M in property but feel cash-flow poor. They’re paying more tax than they should because everything is held in personal names. They have no liquidity, no insurance strategy, and no clear plan for what happens if something happens to them. And almost every single client tells me the same thing: “I don’t actually know what retirement looks like for us.” 

Real estate builds equity, but it doesn’t automatically build freedom. Without a coordinated plan for taxes, income, protection, and exit strategy, investors often end up working harder in retirement than they did in their 30s. That’s why I created the Wealth Freedom Blueprint – a simple, practical guide to help you understand where you stand today, what gaps are costing you money, and how to turn the wealth you’ve built into a life you can actually live. 

Download your free Wealth Freedom Blueprint 

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re building wealth, protecting it, or preparing to transition it, you deserve a clear, tax-smart strategy that works in real life. 

That’s what iWIN Wealth Planning is here for. 

This is how we’re creating predictable, stress-free wealth for Canadian families… 
so you can enjoy the life you’re building. 

Book your Wealth Planning Call 

Sponsored by… Me!

This episode isn’t sponsored—except by my wife Cherry and me. Real estate investing is our life. It’s helped us build wealth and achieve peace of mind about retirement and our children’s future.

Till next time—just do it. I believe in you.

Erwin Szeto
W: erwinszeto.com
FB: facebook.com/erwin.szeto
IG: @erwinszeto

Disclaimer

As a committed advocate for transparent and responsible investing, I want to disclose that I am an Advisor to SHARE SFR (Single Family Rental). I hold equity in the company and earn referral commissions from clients I refer.

My endorsement of their model—focusing on positive cash flow and direct ownership—is based on personal experience and belief. Still, every investor should do their own due diligence.

Recorded: March 2026

Host: Erwin Szeto, The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians Podcast

Guest: Russell Westcott

I often joke that it’s pretty funny I’m an Ontario Realtor who actively tells people not to buy investment properties here. But anyone who has followed me or Cherry knows we only care about the math and keeping things boring. We want cash flow, and we want to actually enjoy our lives without the Landlord and Tenant Board giving us early gray hairs. 

This week on the show, we have an absolute legend and a good friend, Russell Westcott. Russell is the bestselling co-author of Real Estate Joint Ventures, a veteran with over 26 years in the game, and one of the very few coaches in Canada I actually recommend. 

Russell has survived multiple market cycles, but recently, he survived something much scarier. We get raw and real in this episode about market corrections, the “B-word” (bankruptcy), and why he has pivoted entirely to developing multi-family properties in Edmonton. 

Here is what you need to know to protect yourself in 2026. 

The Physical Cost of Real Estate Stress 

Before we discussed the market, Russell shared a terrifying wake-up call. He started experiencing severe calf pain and shortness of breath, which he initially tried to just “tough out”. Thankfully, his wife forced him to go to urgent care, where they discovered he had blood clots in his lungs—a pulmonary embolism. 

It is a stark reminder: the stress of carrying heavy debt and dealing with tenant issues can take a massive physical toll. No amount of portfolio scale is worth dying for. If your investments are destroying your peace of mind and physical health, it is time to re-evaluate your strategy. 

The Survival Spectrum: Pruning vs. Bankruptcy 

If you are currently bleeding cash every month, Russell lays out a survival spectrum. 

On one end, you can hunker down, tighten your belt, drastically cut your expenses, and work a separate job just to put groceries on the table while you ride out the market for the next decade. 

On the other end of the spectrum, sometimes you simply need to rip the plaster off and consider declaring corporate or personal bankruptcy. There is a lot of social judgment around bankruptcy, but if market conditions have drastically changed and you are drowning, it is a legal business tool to wipe the slate clean and start over. 

For most people, the solution lies somewhere in the middle: pruning your portfolio. Russell recommends ruthlessly ranking your properties into the “good, the bad, and the ugly”. Sometimes, you have to make the painful decision to sell a good, liquid property just to free up the capital necessary to dump the ugly ones that are dragging you down. 

The Pre-Con Market: The Python and the Pig 

If you are looking at the condo markets in BC or Ontario right now, be warned. Russell compares the current pre-construction condo crisis to a “python devouring a pig”. 

Investors bought boxes in the sky for $1.2 million, banking on short-term rentals to make the numbers work. Then, municipalities pulled the rug out and banned short-term rentals, forcing investors to rent them out long-term for $4,500 a month, leaving them massively cash-flow negative. The market python has to slowly digest all of this overpriced inventory before things stabilize. 

The Edmonton Comeback and the “Lazy” Investor 

Russell isn’t out of the game; he just pivoted to where the fundamentals make sense. He is currently executing a “hybrid model” in Edmonton, Alberta, building 6-to-25 unit infill developments. He finds the land, underwrites the deal, and raises the capital, but he partners with a 4th-generation home builder on a cost-plus basis to handle the physical construction. This keeps him lean and protects him from the liability of managing trades directly. 

But what if you don’t want to develop? What is left for the everyday, “lazy” investor who works a 9-to-5? Russell outlines three passive options: 

1. The Joint Venture: Find an operator you trust with a proven track record, provide the capital, and let them do the heavy lifting. 

2. Hire a “Sherpa”: Pay a consultant to guide you through a development build, then hand the keys to a property manager. 

3. The Boring Play: Buy a simple side-by-side duplex or townhouse in a landlord-friendly market, hand it to a competent property manager, and just review your statements once a month. 

🎙️ Listen to the full episode to hear the rest of our conversation

To connect with Russell or inquire about his consulting services, visit [russellwestcott.com]. 

10 Questions Answered on Real Estate Market Downturns, Bankruptcy, and Passive Investing 

1. What happens if my investment properties are losing money every month? 

Investors have a spectrum of choices. You can “hunker down” by drastically cutting your personal expenses and working a day job to subsidize the negative cash flow. Alternatively, you can restructure, sell performing assets to cover the losses of bad ones, or even consider bankruptcy to wipe the slate clean and start over. 

2. Is declaring bankruptcy an option for real estate investors? 

Yes. While there is a lot of social judgment surrounding it, bankruptcy is a legal business tool. If market conditions have changed drastically and the debt burden is unmanageable, filing for corporate or personal bankruptcy might be the most logical way to stop the bleeding and restart your financial life. 

3. How do you decide which investment properties to sell in a bad market? 

Russell Westcott recommends categorising your entire portfolio into the “good, the bad, and the ugly.” Sometimes, you must sell a “good,” highly liquid property to free up the cash required to cover the losses of the “ugly” properties, allowing you to prune your portfolio and survive the downturn. 

4. What is the “Python and the Pig” analogy in the real estate market? 

Russell uses the analogy of a “python devouring a pig” to describe the current pre-construction condo market. A massive amount of overpriced inventory (the pig) was swallowed by the market, and it will take a long time for the system to fully digest it before prices and demand can stabilize. 

5. Why are pre-construction condo investors losing money? 

Many investors purchased expensive condos (e.g., $1.2 million) with the intention of operating them as highly lucrative short-term rentals. However, massive regulatory changes banned short-term rentals in many areas, forcing investors to rent them out long-term at rates that do not cover their massive mortgages. 

6. How does stress from real estate investing affect your health? 

The stress of scaling a portfolio, managing bad debt, and dealing with negative cash flow can take a severe physical toll. Russell Westcott experienced a major health scare with blood clots in his lungs (a pulmonary embolism), emphasizing that no amount of real estate wealth matters if you ignore your physical health to build it. 

7. What is a “0%-down real estate” alternative for passive investors? 

Many investors are moving toward properly leveraged stock market investments (like segregated or index funds). This mimics the leverage used in real estate investing, where returns can exceed the cost of borrowing (e.g., a 5.2% tax-deductible interest rate), but it completely eliminates the operational headaches of tenants, toilets, and appliance repairs. 

8. What is the “hybrid model” for real estate development? 

Instead of hiring trades and managing construction directly, the hybrid model involves the investor finding the land, underwriting the business case, and raising the capital. They then partner with an established, multi-generational local home builder on a “cost-plus” basis to physically construct the building, significantly reducing the investor’s operational risk. 

9. What does a “Sherpa” do in real estate investing? 

A real estate “Sherpa” acts as a consultant and guide for passive investors who want to execute complex projects, like small-tier multi-family developments. They help you structure the deal and build the asset, which you can then hand over to a property manager to operate. 

10. What is the best strategy for a passive or “lazy” real estate investor today? 

If you do not want to develop or manage properties, the ultimate passive strategy is to buy a simple side-by-side duplex or a townhouse in a landlord-friendly market, hand the keys to a highly trusted property manager, and simply review your statements once a month. 

To Listen:

On iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/best-selling-rei-author-about-lows-of-near/id1100488294?i=1000757263915

On Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/erwinszeto/episodes/Best-Selling-REI-Author-About-Lows-Of-Near-Bankruptcy-and-Recovery-to-Leading-Developer-e3gmrkj 

Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.ca/podcasts/40fe627d-dec7-4f5d-b7e5-90a550fffe46/episodes/ccaf1515-6382-4aee-8eff-984a7500ff41/the-truth-about-real-estate-investing-for-canadians-best-selling-rei-author-about-lows-of-near-bankruptcy-and-recovery-to-leading-developer

YouTube: https://youtu.be/T4BPVqWzREI

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

After dozens of consultations, I’ve noticed the same pattern again and again: most investors have built real wealth, but they’re not confident they can retire from it. They’re sitting on $2M–$5M in property but feel cash-flow poor. They’re paying more tax than they should because everything is held in personal names. They have no liquidity, no insurance strategy, and no clear plan for what happens if something happens to them. And almost every single client tells me the same thing: “I don’t actually know what retirement looks like for us.” 

Real estate builds equity, but it doesn’t automatically build freedom. Without a coordinated plan for taxes, income, protection, and exit strategy, investors often end up working harder in retirement than they did in their 30s. That’s why I created the Wealth Freedom Blueprint – a simple, practical guide to help you understand where you stand today, what gaps are costing you money, and how to turn the wealth you’ve built into a life you can actually live. 

Download your free Wealth Freedom Blueprint 

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re building wealth, protecting it, or preparing to transition it, you deserve a clear, tax-smart strategy that works in real life. 

That’s what iWIN Wealth Planning is here for. 

This is how we’re creating predictable, stress-free wealth for Canadian families… 
so you can enjoy the life you’re building. 

Book your Wealth Planning Call 

Sponsored by… Me!

This episode isn’t sponsored—except by my wife Cherry and me. Real estate investing is our life. It’s helped us build wealth and achieve peace of mind about retirement and our children’s future.

Till next time—just do it. I believe in you.

Erwin Szeto
W: erwinszeto.com
FB: facebook.com/erwin.szeto
IG: @erwinszeto

Disclaimer

As a committed advocate for transparent and responsible investing, I want to disclose that I am an Advisor to SHARE SFR (Single Family Rental). I hold equity in the company and earn referral commissions from clients I refer.

My endorsement of their model—focusing on positive cash flow and direct ownership—is based on personal experience and belief. Still, every investor should do their own due diligence.

Recorded: March 2026

Host: Erwin Szeto, The Truth About Real Estate Investing for Canadians Podcast

Guest: Anderson Carter-Griffith

Anderson Carter-Griffith had never bought a stock when he arrived in Canada. 

He came over from Barbados on a hotel recruitment program—one of 100 selected from thousands who showed up for the chance. He worked hospitality, went to culinary school, ran a catering business out of Scotiabank Arena, and eventually started delivering DoorDash on the side.

The DoorDash gig was not an accident. It was a strategy.

Today, Anderson gets paid full-time to trade. He manages a professional trading desk, coaches everyday investors on options strategies, and parks his market gains into a family real estate portfolio in Barbados—which is why he is a guest on a real estate show. But the story worth telling is the trading journey. Because it started from nothing, and it followed a path almost anyone can take.

The Rule That Changed Everything: Never Trade Your Own Income

When Anderson decided to learn trading seriously, he made one non-negotiable rule for himself: the money going into his brokerage account could not be money he needed to live.

So he delivered DoorDash—every day, winter and summer—and used only those earnings to fund his trading account.

“I recommend you come to trading with what I call disposable income. It’s crazy to me that people use their rent money.”

That discipline kept him in the game long enough to actually learn it. Most people who blow up their trading accounts do so because a losing trade isn’t just a financial loss—it’s a crisis. When the money you are trading is money you can afford to lose, you make clearer decisions.

It’s the same principle veteran investors apply to leveraged investing: you don’t use capital you cannot afford to work with. The position size has to let you sleep at night.

🎧Listen to the full podcast

Step 1: ETFs First. Always.

Anderson didn’t start by picking stocks. He started with ETFs—broad, diversified funds that track entire sectors.

The reason is simple: ETFs teach you how sectors move without the noise of individual company risk. And once you understand that, you can lift the hood.

“I started with ETFs. Then I dug deeper under the hood, looked at the top 10 holdings, and as my capital and experience grew, I started picking up those individual companies.”

Today his long-term portfolio reflects that progression:

• 40% Tech: Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir
• 60% Diversified: Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth, Enbridge, TD, Royal Bank

He also uses “covered calls” on top of those holdings—a strategy that generates income from stocks you already own, effectively turning any position into a dividend-paying asset. For investors who want their money working without constant attention, this is worth understanding.

Step 2: Swing Trading — Investing That Fits Around a Job

Before Anderson was trading full-time, he was swing trading on his phone in thirty-minute windows—before work and at market close.

A swing trade is a position held anywhere from overnight to a few months. It is slower, less stressful, and far more appropriate for someone who still has a job, a family, and a life.

“If you sit and watch charts every minute and you’re not trained for it, your emotional and mental bandwidth is toast in about half an hour.”

This is where Anderson started coaching others. His company, The Trader Desk, teaches six core options strategies built around this model: put on a trade in the morning, check your phone mid-day, and let it run. No screen-watching. No emotional rollercoaster.

The first strategy he teaches is option spreads—not naked puts. The distinction matters. With an option spread, you know exactly how much you can lose before you enter the trade. Your downside is defined. For someone trading with genuinely disposable income, that structure makes the learning process feel manageable instead of terrifying.

The goal he sets for new students: replace one day’s income per month from trading. Not quit your job. Not get rich fast. One day. Then build from there.

Step 3: Professional Trading — Getting Paid to Trade Someone Else’s Capital

The final stage in Anderson’s journey was joining a trading firm as a professional—meaning the firm provides the capital, Anderson trades it, and he earns a percentage of the returns.

He now trades during New York Stock Exchange hours (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.) from a seven-monitor setup, and also trades futures in the early morning when the London and New York sessions overlap—a window he calls “the switch-on,” when institutional money floods the market and volatility spikes.

The firm’s rule: be “flat” by the end of every day. No overnight positions. It is a discipline that eliminates the risk of waking up to a tweet or a headline that has moved the market against you while you slept.

“I had to go to work for a week in Barbados to make what I can make in a couple of hours here. Once I got a taste of it, I couldn’t believe people made money like this.”

Where the Money Goes: The Real Estate Connection

Anderson’s philosophy on trading profits is simple: get the fast-paced money out of the market as quickly as possible and park it somewhere safe and boring.

For him, that means real estate. His family owns eight buildings—16 apartments—in Barbados. It is a mix of long-term tenants and short-term Airbnb units (where rates run $300 to $1,000 USD/night depending on unit size). A property manager handles operations, and Anderson doesn’t touch it.

It’s the same logic successful business owners use: fast income funds patient assets. Trading cash flow—like employment income—gets deployed into stable real estate, a dividend portfolio, or insurance products that compound over decades.

The vehicle is less important than the principle: active income should be building passive assets, not just paying for lifestyle.

10 Questions Answered on Trading, Options, and Building Wealth

1. What is the safest way for a beginner to start trading?

Anderson recommends starting with ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) rather than trying to pick individual stocks. By looking “under the hood” of ETFs, beginners can learn how different sectors move without the high risk of single-company exposure.

2. What is the biggest mistake new traders make?

Trading their rent or grocery money. Anderson built his initial trading account by delivering for DoorDash every single day. Using strictly disposable income removes the emotional panic of losing essential funds, which is when most new traders blow up their accounts.

3. What is “swing trading” and is it good for people with 9-to-5 jobs?

Swing trading involves holding a trade anywhere from overnight to several months. Anderson highly recommends this for people with full-time jobs because it doesn’t require watching the screen all day—you can simply check your positions for 30 minutes in the morning and 30 minutes at the close.

4. Why do professional day traders close all their positions by the end of the day?

Professional prop traders are required to be “flat” (holding zero positions) at the end of the day to eliminate overnight risk. This ensures they don’t wake up to massive losses caused by unexpected after-hours news, geopolitical events, or sudden market shifts.

5. Why are “option spreads” safer than selling “naked puts”?

While some strategies teach selling naked puts, Anderson warns against this because it requires massive upfront capital and exposes you to assignment risk if the trade goes against you. Option spreads, on the other hand, have a strictly defined, limited downside risk so you know exactly what your maximum loss is before entering the trade.

6. Can you turn a non-dividend stock into a cash-flowing asset?

Yes. Anderson uses an options strategy called “covered calls” to generate income on regular stocks he holds in his long-term portfolio. This effectively turns any standard stock into a dividend-producing asset.

7. How much money do you need to start trading options?

You can realistically start trading with as little as $1,000. The mechanics and core strategies of options trading are exactly the same whether you are trading a $1,000 account or a $10 million account; it simply becomes a matter of scaling the number of contracts you buy.

8. What is the “crossover” in the stock market?

The crossover is a highly volatile, volume-heavy period around 8:00 AM to 9:30 AM EST when the London trading session overlaps with the pre-market New York session. This is when institutional money (the “whales” and hedge funds) flood the market, creating prime opportunities for professional traders.

9. What should day traders do with their market profits?

Anderson’s core philosophy is to pull fast-paced money out of the market as quickly as possible and park it in safe, boring assets. He moves his trading gains into a stable dividend portfolio and hard real estate to preserve his wealth.

10. How does trading income complement real estate investing?

Trading is active income, while real estate is a patient, long-term asset. Anderson uses his active trading profits to expand and support his family’s real estate portfolio of 16 long-term and short-term rental apartments in Barbados, creating a diversified, multi-generational wealth engine.

🎧Listen to the full podcast

Connect with Anderson 

Anderson offers one-on-one coaching through The Trader Desk. Sessions are tailored to your pace and your level — whether you’re starting with $1,000 or $100,000, the strategies are the same. 

Email: thetraderdesk@outlook.com — include your name and phone number and he’ll get back to you. 

F

To Listen:

On iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/he-funded-his-trading-with-doordash-now-hes/id1100488294?i=1000755092186

On Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/erwinszeto/episodes/He-Funded-His-Trading-With-DoorDash–Now-Hes-a-Professional-Trader-e3gclq0 

Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.ca/podcasts/40fe627d-dec7-4f5d-b7e5-90a550fffe46/episodes/eee14026-efb7-4573-9c31-860d65ad9bcf/the-truth-about-real-estate-investing-for-canadians-he-funded-his-trading-with-doordash-now-he%27s-a-professional-trader

Audible: https://www.audible.ca/pd/B0GSGWXJQZ?source_code=ASSGB149080119000H&share_location=pdp

YouTube: https://youtu.be/hsvpNLnabHg

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

You’ve Built Wealth. Now It’s Time to Understand It. 

After dozens of consultations, I’ve noticed the same pattern again and again: most investors have built real wealth, but they’re not confident they can retire from it. They’re sitting on $2M–$5M in property but feel cash-flow poor. They’re paying more tax than they should because everything is held in personal names. They have no liquidity, no insurance strategy, and no clear plan for what happens if something happens to them. And almost every single client tells me the same thing: “I don’t actually know what retirement looks like for us.” 

Real estate builds equity, but it doesn’t automatically build freedom. Without a coordinated plan for taxes, income, protection, and exit strategy, investors often end up working harder in retirement than they did in their 30s. That’s why I created the Wealth Freedom Blueprint – a simple, practical guide to help you understand where you stand today, what gaps are costing you money, and how to turn the wealth you’ve built into a life you can actually live. 

Download your free Wealth Freedom Blueprint 

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re building wealth, protecting it, or preparing to transition it, you deserve a clear, tax-smart strategy that works in real life. 

That’s what iWIN Wealth Planning is here for. 

This is how we’re creating predictable, stress-free wealth for Canadian families… 
so you can enjoy the life you’re building. 

Book your Wealth Planning Call 

Sponsored by… Me!

This episode isn’t sponsored—except by my wife Cherry and me. Real estate investing is our life. It’s helped us build wealth and achieve peace of mind about retirement and our children’s future.

Till next time—just do it. I believe in you.

Erwin Szeto
W: erwinszeto.com
FB: facebook.com/erwin.szeto
IG: @erwinszeto

Disclaimer

As a committed advocate for transparent and responsible investing, I want to disclose that I am an Advisor to SHARE SFR (Single Family Rental). I hold equity in the company and earn referral commissions from clients I refer.

My endorsement of their model—focusing on positive cash flow and direct ownership—is based on personal experience and belief. Still, every investor should do their own due diligence.